Analyst: PlayStation Will Beat Xbox 360

look
it all comes down to 2 things and 2 things only
1) the games. the system with a lot of good games and the best games
and
2) support/service. the company that cares about its consumer knows what the people want and what they will buy. if ur crap to ur consumer then ur digging urself a hole.

ultimatily the company with the best support, services, and games will win no matter how out numbered or down in the dirt or doing poorly, in the end they will win
ex. dreamcast vs ps1, everyone said ps1 sucked and was crap. which one died out?

This sounded all reasonably well, untill you brought up as example Dreamcast vs. PS1...huh? That makes no sense at all. Both launched 5 years apart, belonged to a different generation and so on.

My angle is the image consolidation theory. Every console consolidates a certain image and (sales)trend in its first one and half- two years and gets stuck with the rest of the running gen. When dealing with a competitive situation, the consolidated images and trends of your competitors can prove to be disadventageous or advantegeous to your own.

Apply this to the current gen and you will see that the consolidated images and trends of the Xbox360 and PS3 actually played a huge rule of why the Wii is now the market leader. A nuance though, only the Xbox360 has a complete consolidated image and trend, the PS3 and Wii have an almost complete consolidated image and trend (if you take the two year route). Both consoles have digged them self in inside the hardcore niche and both are having a difficult time of getting out.

A consolidated image has many components
1) history of it's predecessor, while this only plays a secondary function.
2) the Primary games, which i mean the games that people by the console for...but also why. It is getting clear that the so-called "system-sellers" or "killer-apps" for both the Xbox360 and PS3 are not wat they used to be. I designate them into a lower tier and call them "fan-pleasers".
Games that (hugely) attract an allready existing segment of the game-market...but do not expand the gaming market (what kiler-apps used to do). These are games designed to pull in the former install base from its predecessor or pull away from the install base of a competitors predecessor. Also you have to combine this with the anticipation purchases of consoles by the intalled base of the predecessor. Gamers expect certain games to come out for the a certain console and so buy the console beforehand.

These two aspects explain why former killer-apps actually only spike console sales for a month or maybe two and then settle down again (back to the consolidated trend). The designation of fan-pleaser is then just in this light.

It are these Primary Games and the extent of marketing push behind them that are the main cause of the consolidated image and trend of a console. Third parties almost always copy what the first party pushes himself on its console.

Offcourse, it's only a theory...so very debatable.

dont believe a word these so called experts say. Two years ago they were all saying that PS3 would win this generation with about 60% market share. Nintendo was seen as a non-runner.

Its all a load of s**te!!

How much do these w****rs get paid

In an interview, when it was pointed out to Alanis that all the things in her song weren't actually ironic at all, she claimed that THAT was the intended irony of the song.

My arse.

I don't have a problem with people posting relevant and informative links in the Forum at all. Linking-back would really put the icing on the cake though.

:-)

Cheers

Tim

"I don't have a problem with people posting relevant and informative links in the Forum at all. Linking-back would really put the icing on the cake though."

Consider the cake iced.

Regards,

Steve

so you just assume he did mean ps1 in stead of asking if he meant ps2?

Yes, but then again, i don't remember anyone saying the PS2 was crap and sucked when it launched, well except the fanboys of opposites sides. More believeable with the PS1 since Sony was the new entry and Nintendo still enjoyed a perceived hegemonic position.

But alas, still very much jumping on conclusions on my part. My excuses.

Also i like to add to my theory of consolidated image and trend that the creation (in time and power of effect on market performance) of these images can change between generations depending on the then dominant culture among gamers in a very broad sense(refereing to both concepts of culture and gamer). Also it is possible to break your consolidated image with a series of innovative, high-quality, ground-breaking, market disruptive games. Note i said series of games, not one or two.

Optimus, you make some good points. I almost saw a glint to the Matrix come from you.

This is funny. Being an analyst must be a pretty sweet job, if you get to wear nice suits and predict bs all day (perrhaps its not all like that). I do agree, paying much attention to them is only worth it, if they are in the company of hot chicks. Much of what analysts say is all several rounds shot in the dark, barely hitting the intended target.

What's even funnier is that I predicted Nintendo would clean house with DS and Wii, back when the PS3 was the hot sh*t talk of the town. Just look at how many developers were backing the same PS3 horse. Guess the analysts got their first.

How did I know Nintendo would clean house? It wasn't a matter of numbers or stats, but basic thinking of the possibilties of what they were trying to do and applying that thinking to games that could be made, as well as their determination, not to have to leave the console market for good.

When I saw Trauma Center on DS (while not a Nintendo game), it sealed the deal for me as to why Nintendo would lead, because a game like Trauma Center is unique to DS or Wii, you can't play them anywhere else. If many well done games followed this formula of using what's available well while being fun, they stand a higher chance of success (though not always the result). Wii Fit is another good example of this train of thought.

Enough about Wii and DS. Here's my reasons why PS3 will always be last.

1: The masses are used to DVD/DVD recorders now. It took long enough for the masses to embrace DVD over VHS, so despite what Sony think, the masses will be reluctant to embrace Blu Ray, unless they are gamers or tech junkies. This is a prime factor that analysts always miss. Add to that equation the fact Blu Ray can't record and its a no go.

2: The Wii is the mass market console choice of the masses, be you in denial or not. Its got that X Factor that PS3 doesn't have, and IMO will sell in demand til Nintendo replace it. It might be old tech, but the general masses care less about such things. Its about the fun factor.

3: Sony are confusing themselves and more so us. They want to do DLTV/films and such, but still want us to invest in expensive Blu Ray media. They've got to decide, which one is it.

4: This last fact may seal PS3s fate. I heard Toshiba have gone back to HQ and put their heads together, about a new tech which upscales standard DVD, while also catering for HD-DVD too. If Toshiba can achieve this with good quality, possibly recordability and mass produce it to a cheap price, Blu Ray is gonna sink even deeper in trouble. Toshiba know PS3 is already struggling, so aiding MS and Nintendo is certainly in their favour, they''ll be considering to get back at Sony (remember, Blu Ray can't play normal dvds either, big mistake, Sony).

Imagine consoles based on such Toshiba tech. You'd have the cheap option of normal DVD for smaller developers and HD-DVD for larger ones. 360 is already half way there, but if both were built into the same console, no that would be something.

PS3 is gonna be last.

Hey, go over to thesimexchange.com and place your predictions. I reckon MGS4 still won't sell enough to save PS3.

I think you just put the 'anal' in analyst.

:D

Blame the exam period and studying history...after a while, you're seeing theories and structures in everything while also thinking in wording everything in very "anal" nuances and stuff.

My next exam is on the 9th and the next one on the 24th...i got a lot of time on my hands ^^.

Except that Blu-ray is apparently taking off faster than DVD did. Casino Royale hit 100,000 copies sold much faster than the first DVD to do so (Air Force One) - two weeks compared to about 11 months.


Except that Blu-ray burners for PCs were available before stand-alone players and consumer Blu-ray recordable devices are already available so obviously Blu-ray can record.


Except that all Blu-ray players including the PS3 can play DVDs as well. Just because it's not a mandatory part of the spec doesn't mean it's not supported.

Seriously where do you get this s**te?

Uncanny valley land...where everything looks so realistic, it isn't anymore.

Also the birth place of Oblivion.

You've just watched a Zero Punctuation and I claim my five pounds!

I did watch one, but i founded Oblivion to be in Uncanny Valley land far before mister Yathzee came with his criticism.

Actually i believe this whole HD-realism these days all originates from Uncanny Valley Land, as i have posted here many times :).

So you can have 2 quid and 50 cents...buy yourself a guinness ^^